Coal-fired Power Generation Development Trend in China by 2050
Abstract
China's coal-fired power exhibited overcapacity as its utilization hours significantly decreased. The paper analyzes reasons for the overcapacity, pays special attention to the coal-fired power capacity needed in the energy transition of China in the middle and long term. Analysis shows that, without consideration of drop-off cost, around 980 GW coal-fired power capacity is enough to meet the demand and ensure the power system balance. If we optimize the power system by least total cost, the reasonable capacity of coal-fired power will be 1120 GW, somewhat larger since of the role changing and price advantage. And the peak capacity of coal-fired power will reach 1149 GW in 2026, compared with it power generation reach the peak in 2025. Since of declining utilization hours, coal-fired power will accelerate the drop-off after 2030.
Keywords
Coal-fired power, Utilization hours, Overcapacity, Planning, Production simulation
DOI
10.12783/dteees/epe2018/23756
10.12783/dteees/epe2018/23756
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