A Study of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation Influence on China’s Tea Export Value

Abstract

It is an empirical analysis of whether RMB real effective exchange rate (REER) can influence China’s tea export value and how, using least square method and error correction model to establish long-term and short-term equilibrium relationships among variables on the basis of unit root test, autocorrelation test and co-integration test. The empirical results show that RMB appreciation can increase China’s tea export value in the short term, but decrease in the long term; the average price rise of China’s tea export can increase the tea export either in the long term or short; US consumer price index (CPI) rise can increase China’s tea export in the long term, but decrease in the short term; China’s manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) for China economic climate can also accelerate China’s tea export. But all the influences are not significant