The Prediction of Secondary Exponential Smoothing of the Total GDP of Mongolia

Abstract

Recent years, the trend of total GDP in Mongolia has been increasing fast, the total GDP has been 1.77 trillion yuan in 2014, which reflects the level of economic development and economic strength to a certain extent. In addition, it is an important role to the analysis of economic growth and inflation. It is a good method to make a precise economic development plan to predict the total GDP in 2016. Therefore, the total GDP of Mongolia prediction research is of great economic and practical significance. The prediction method includes gray model GM (1, 1) method, a geometric growth, exponential smoothing method that have different characteristics. For example, the advantage of exponential smoothing method is that it can use a special weighted average method for data to achieve the purpose of prediction [1]. Using exponential smoothing method do not have to quantitative study of the inner factor and their interconnections of complex systems, but only need to find useful information from the time itself. The basic principle is to give greater weight for older data and give less weight for the earlier data. In this situation, the earlier data can have less affect to prediction results and the recent data can have greater effect to the prediction results. It is full of strong rationality and science and suitable for short- term forecasting. In this essay, based on data from 2004 to 2014 and using the secondary exponential smoothing method to predict GDP for Mongolia in 2016.