Potential of China’s Agricultural Resources

Abstract

The calculation of the agricultural potential of China, based on the production of grains, oilseeds (inputs are arable and irrigation areas, fertilizers) and meat (inputs are grains, oilseeds, and oilseeds derivatives (meal) production), according to FAO and USDA statistics. Based on the analysis of the relationships of these parameters, a mathematical model is developed (a system of equations of multiple regression). Growth in yield of cereal crops up to 6.1 t/ha, oilseeds crop yield grow to 2.7 t/ha, the proportion of grain sent to livestock feed up to 60%, the share of irrigated land up to 60% are the main input parameters. In this case potential production of food products, in particular, grain crops and meat, is potentially sufficient for the self-supply of the population of China of 1,600 million people. An acute problem for China will remain to provide the population with meat products, which will require the import of oilseed meal. This scientific and methodological toolbox makes it possible to obtain an objective quantitative assessment of the potential regional population