Energy Power Demand Simulation Technology and Medium-Long Term Power Demand Forecasting under Green Development Mode

Abstract

After the 12th Five-Year Plan becomes the first green development planning, the Fifth Plenary Session of the Eighteen listed ‘green development’ into the five development concepts. This paper proposes an economy-energy-electricity-environment model system for green development mode research, including macroeconomic forecasting model (MEF), State Information Center computable general equilibrium model (SICGE), agent response equilibrium model (ARE), state grid energy system optimization model (SGESOM) and green policy mix optimization model (GPMOM), among which a data-transmission mechanism is established. Besides, the paper proposes the optimal policy combination for green development implementation, including raising excise taxes, resource taxes and carbon taxes, which are used to develop green industries and promote the green technology upgrading. The base scenario and the green development scenario are established to analyze and forecast medium-long term energy demand and electric power demand in China. It turns out that under the green development mode electricity consumption will be 7.1 trillion kWh in 2020 and 9.8 trillion kWh in 2030 respectively.