Photovoltaic Output Power Probability Model Based on Adaptive Beta Kernel Density Estimation

Abstract

Due to the current non-parametric kernel density estimation method for photovoltaic(PV) output power probability modeling using fixed bandwidth, lacking of local adaptability, existing boundary bias, etc, the probability model of PV output power based on adaptive Beta kernel density estimation theory is proposed. The historical data of the PV power in Ashland region of the US was used for simulation analysis. The simulation results verified the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed model.