The Risk Evaluation Model of Civil Aircraft R&D Project Based on Real Option Methodology

Abstract

The paper aims to develop an evaluation model of Civil Aircraft R&D project Risk. The study reviews the past literature and analyses the possible option type in civil aircraft research process. The Binomial Option Tree Model is discussed in the follow section. The uncertainty of R&D project and its influence on risk was analyzed. Then the paper proposes a risk evaluation model with the Binomial Option Tree Model and Monte Carlo simulation method. Finally, the model is validated by the case study. The results show it is a feasible approach.